(Not) My guys: 2014 Overvalued
*Please note that the blurbs following each player listed are more or less notes on the player, not the entire foundation upon which my projections are built.
1. Wil Myers: My rank 80/ECR: 55 – Plenty of talent, but Myers’ strikeout issues could cap his batting average upside.
2. Yoenis Cespedes: My rank: 98/ECR: 62 – Pop up issues, high fly ball rate, K% spike all indicate a low baseline batting average.
3. Anibal Sanchez: My rank: 94/ECR: 67 – I just dislike that Sanchez is already dealing with shoulder troubles in spring training.
4. Alex Gordon: My rank: 104/ECR: 73 – Gordon isn’t the near .300 hitter that he was during 2011 and 2012. His BABIP was .036 higher than his career BABIP over that span. Gordon’s BABIP came back to Earth last year, which is likely where it stays in 2014.
5. Carlos Santana: My rank: 124/ECR: 75 – Average fly ball distance has dropped 9.7 feet since 2011. FB% has dropped 8.2% since 2010. Neither bodes well for his power outlook.
6. Matt Moore: My rank: 172/ECR: 112 – Control issues punctuated by a terrible 50.9% F-Strike percentage in 2013. Velocity down nearly 2 mph and SwStr% down 2.3% last year. Career 1.32 WHIP is pretty bad and there is little reason to expect big improvement in 2014. Plenty of talent to finally break out, but the statistics suggest that would be hopeful thinking.
7. Mike Napoli: My rank: 202/ECR: 144 – Has power, good lineup, good ballpark, but 30% strikeout rate and above average fly ball rate really cap batting average expectations.
8. Rafael Soriano: My rank: 247/ECR: 160 – K% plummet to 18.4% — 6.8% lower than his career mark. SwStr% dropped to 9.0% — 2.7% lower than his career average. 4.05 xFIP. Low F-Strike% suggests three-year low BB% was a mirage. Soriano seems like a good candidate to lose his job at some point in 2014, if not relatively early in the year.
9. Zack Wheeler: My rank: 190/ECR: 241 – Control issues, bad F-Strike%. Solid, but not great K% and SwStr%. 4.21 xFIP suggests Wheeler needs to figure some things out before he is shallow mixed-league worthy. Should be drafted as a guy you hope figures it out , not one you expect to do so with any serious level of confidence.
Other players I am more cautious on than the FantasyPros consensus: Homer Bailey (My rank: 100/ECR: 74), James Shields (My rank: 102/ECR: 76), Brandon Phillips (My rank: 126/ECR: 99), Manny Machado (My rank: 165/ECR: 125), Jon Lester (My rank: 184/ECR: 145), Jed Lowrie (My rank: 229/ECR: 175), Chris Archer (My rank: 237/ECR: 181)
Here is the full list of my dissenting opinions.